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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 3.8x - 4.2x | 4.0x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 3.8x - 4.2x | 4.0x |
| Fair Value | €37.92 - €42.57 | €40.25 |
| Upside | -10.4% - 0.6% | -4.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| OMV Aktiengesellschaft | OMV | DB:OMV |
| The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | DB:WMB |
| HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. | ELPE | ATSE:ELPE |
| Neste Oyj | NESTE | HLSE:NESTE |
| Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. | GALP | ENXTLS:GALP |
| Koninklijke Vopak N.V. | VPK | ENXTAM:VPK |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| OMV | WMB | ELPE | NESTE | GALP | VPK | |||
| DB:OMV | DB:WMB | ATSE:ELPE | HLSE:NESTE | ENXTLS:GALP | ENXTAM:VPK | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 1.0% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -1.6% | -0.1% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 2.2% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.1% | 10.8% | -14.2% | -4.6% | -4.9% | -3.4% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.3% | 31.6% | 4.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 27.7% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.1% | 42.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 13.5% | 30.0% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 14.9% | 31.4% | 3.3% | 0.1% | 11.3% | 29.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.5% | 32.6% | 0.6% | -0.3% | 10.1% | 28.7% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.52x | 8.46x | 0.45x | 0.81x | 0.73x | 4.22x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 3.8x | 25.9x | 76.2x | -246.1x | 7.3x | 14.7x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.48x | 6.18x | 0.23x | 0.60x | 0.56x | 3.68x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.45x | 0.73x | 8.46x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 4.72x | 5.56x | 6.65x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 3.77x | 3.97x | 4.16x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 1,325 | 1,325 | 1,325 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,993 | 5,256 | 5,518 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (718) | (718) | (718) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 4,274 | 4,537 | 4,800 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 115.3 | 115.3 | 115.3 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 37.08 | 39.36 | 41.64 | |||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 37.08 | 39.36 | 41.64 | 42.32 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -12.4% | -7.0% | -1.6% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | OMV | WMB | ELPE | NESTE | GALP | VPK | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,689 | 95,350 | 5,081 | 16,595 | 14,811 | 5,596 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 6,391 | 903 | 766 | 981 | 2,229 | 100 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 6,355 | 4,209 | 191 | 87 | 97 | 2,142 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,542) | (28,572) | (3,362) | (5,344) | (4,947) | (2,835) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (6,406) | (2,367) | (53) | 0 | (775) | (125) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | (35) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 15,487 | 69,488 | 2,622 | 12,319 | 11,415 | 4,878 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 327.0 | 1,221.2 | 305.6 | 768.2 | 695.4 | 115.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 47.36 | 56.90 | 8.58 | 16.04 | 16.42 | 42.32 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 47.36 | 48.93 | 8.58 | 16.04 | 16.42 | 42.32 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |