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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 20.4x - 22.4x | 21.4x |
| Fair Value | $190.67 - $217.84 | $203.83 |
| Upside | -17.7% - -5.9% | -12.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 |
| Revenue | 391,035 | 415,369 | 433,476 | 462,051 | 489,894 | 533,329 | 551,996 | 563,035 | 574,296 | 585,782 | 597,498 |
| % Growth | 2.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 134,661 | 143,785 | 149,971 | 158,860 | 174,141 | 194,179 | 200,975 | 204,995 | 209,095 | 213,277 | 217,542 |
| % of Revenue | 34.4% | 34.6% | 34.6% | 34.4% | 35.5% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (USD in millions) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | |
| EBITDA | 143,785 | 149,971 | 158,860 | 174,141 | 194,179 | 200,975 | 204,995 | 209,095 | 213,277 | 217,542 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (11,667) | (12,350) | (12,459) | (11,155) | (11,661) | (12,069) | (12,310) | (12,556) | (12,807) | (13,063) | |
| EBIT | 132,118 | 137,621 | 146,401 | 162,986 | 182,519 | 188,907 | 192,685 | 196,538 | 200,469 | 204,479 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (22,460) | (23,396) | (24,888) | (27,708) | (31,028) | (32,114) | (32,756) | (33,412) | (34,080) | (34,761) | |
| NOPAT | 102,269 | 109,658 | 114,226 | 121,513 | 135,278 | 151,490 | 156,793 | 159,928 | 163,127 | 166,389 | 169,717 |
| Capital Expenditures | (9,447) | (12,223) | (12,700) | (13,543) | (14,598) | (15,750) | (14,630) | (14,923) | (15,101) | (14,885) | (14,970) |
| NWC Investment | 1,107 | 3,475 | 2,586 | 4,081 | 3,976 | 6,203 | 2,666 | 1,577 | 1,608 | 1,640 | 1,673 |
| (+) D&A | 11,445 | 11,667 | 12,350 | 12,459 | 11,155 | 11,661 | 12,069 | 12,310 | 12,556 | 12,807 | 13,063 |
| Free Cash Flow | 105,374 | 112,577 | 116,461 | 124,510 | 135,811 | 153,604 | 156,897 | 158,892 | 162,190 | 165,952 | 169,484 |
| % Growth | 7% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | |