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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 4.5% - 5.5% | 5.0% |
Fair Value | $171.89 - $268.70 | $208.92 |
Upside | -25.8% - 16.0% | -9.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | |
Revenue | 391,035 | 415,369 | 433,476 | 462,051 | 489,894 | 533,329 | |
% Growth | 2.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.9% | |
EBITDA | 134,661 | 143,785 | 149,971 | 158,860 | 174,141 | 194,179 | |
% of Revenue | 34.4% | 34.6% | 34.6% | 34.4% | 35.5% | 36.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
(USD in millions) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 143,785 | 149,971 | 158,860 | 174,141 | 194,179 | 194,179 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (11,667) | (12,350) | (12,459) | (11,155) | (11,661) | (14,963) | |
EBIT | 132,118 | 137,621 | 146,401 | 162,986 | 182,519 | 179,217 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (22,460) | (23,396) | (24,888) | (27,708) | (31,028) | (30,467) | |
NOPAT | 102,269 | 109,658 | 114,226 | 121,513 | 135,278 | 151,490 | 148,750 |
Capital Expenditures | (9,447) | (12,223) | (12,700) | (13,543) | (14,598) | (15,750) | (15,750) |
NWC Investment | 1,107 | 3,475 | 2,586 | 4,081 | 3,976 | 6,203 | 3,808 |
(+) D&A | 11,445 | 11,667 | 12,350 | 12,459 | 11,155 | 11,661 | 14,963 |
Free Cash Flow | 105,374 | 112,577 | 116,461 | 124,510 | 135,811 | 153,604 | 151,770 |
% Growth | 7% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 13% | -1% |